Indians Release Francoeur
The Indians announced the release of OF Jeff Francoeur this morning. Francoeur had been in camp as a non-roster invitee on a minor league contract. The roster move was somewhat surprising because left-handed hitters Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, and David Murphy comprise the Indians starting outfield and Francoeur bats right-handed.
In his career, Francoeur has hit .285/.335/.465 against left-handed pitchers, but his performance had fallen off in recent seasons. In 2012 and 2013, he hit just .224/.291/.346 in 278 plate appearances versus left-handers.
Francoeur has a somewhat undeserved reputation as a good fielder, thanks to the solid range and powerful arm that earned him a Gold Glove with the Braves in 2007. His arm remains a powerful weapon, ranking second to his former teammate Alex Gordon in Runs Above Average from 2011-2013. But his range has deteriorated in recent seasons, enough to offset the value of his arm.
Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer tweets that Francoeur’s release means that utilityman Elliot Johnson has made the team. Johnson is a switch-hitter who can play anywhere in the field, but he has batted poorly against pitchers of either handedness in his career. Presumably, Indians manager Terry Francona values Johnson’s speed and defensive versatility over Francoeur’s comparatively stronger bat.
Playing Pepper: Previewing the 2014 Indians
Ubaldo Jimenez (Photo credit: Keith Allison)
Spring Training is upon us, and on fields across Florida and Arizona, baseball players are gathering for games of pepper as they prepare for the upcoming season. So too with baseball writers: fellow Baseball Bloggers Alliance member Daniel Shoptaw invited several Indians bloggers to answer questions about the 2014 Tribe for his “Playing Pepper” series. You can read my responses below, but be sure to stop by C70 At the Bat tomorrow for the full story.
How would you grade the offseason?
Ownership made it clear that they spent any new revenues to be realized from local and national TV deals last year on Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, making departure the theme of the Indians’ offseason.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Scott Kazmir, collectively responsible for 61 starts and 340 innings of 3.65 ERA, departed for the greener pastures of Baltimore and Oakland. Setup man Joe Smith signed a lucrative 3-year deal with Los Anaheim. The Indians front office sent Drew Stubbs and Chris Perez packing before either could reap the benefits of arbitration, in Stubbs’ case swapping him for left-handed reliever Josh Outman.
Several credible in-house candidates to replace Smith exist in Vinnie Pestano, Cody Allen, and Bryan Shaw. New addition David Murphy will be an upgrade over Stubbs, whose poor plate discipline and struggles against right-handed pitching the past three seasons should have relegated him to a fourth-outfielder role. John Axford was brought in to close, and his reasonable one-year deal and three remaining years of control make him the best acquisition of the offseason.
The Tribe did little to address the gaping hole in the rotation, signing only a project (Shaun Marcum), a reject (Aaron Harang), and the usual suspects (Tyler Cloyd and Kyle Davies) to fill the void. If any end up pitching significant innings in 2014, the season will not have gone well. Instead, the Indians will hope that Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, and Zach McAllister can replace much of the missing innings, in not only quantity but quality. The rest will have to come from Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin or Trevor Bauer.
GM Chris Antonetti did well to avoid signing any lucrative, long-term contracts with mediocre free agent starters such as Ricky Nolasco or Ervin Santana. Moreover, by signing Axford, he didn’t commit guaranteed money to any of the aging closers on the market. Signing Murphy to platoon with Ryan Raburn seems like a cost-effective solution in right field. The Indians won their first two arbitration cases in 22 years, and avoided two others by extending Michael Brantley and coming to terms with Justin Masterson before his hearing. Yet the offseason was disappointing because the Indians treaded water, failing to make any significant improvements to capitalize on their first playoff appearance since 2007.
Grade: C+
Given the Cardinal connection, I have to ask what are you expecting to get from John Axford?
Axford credits his late-season success to the Cardinals’ coaching staff, who corrected a tell in his delivery that tipped hitters off to his pitch selection. He still possesses the blazing four-seamer and two quality off-speed pitches that enabled him to dominate the NL in 2010-11, but the control issues that have plagued him throughout his career will likely provide Terry Francona some white-knuckle moments along the dugout rail. Still, Axford should easily better the numbers of Perez provided he can navigate through the pitcherless lineups of the big boy league.
Which roster battle will be the most intriguing during spring training?
Yan Gomes‘ surprising bat and superior pitch framing have pushed Carlos Santana out of the starting catcher’s job and into a battle with Lonnie Chisenhall at the hot corner.
Santana has the jump on Chisenhall, playing 29 games at third in the Dominican Winter League to prepare for spring training, but results there were mixed. Santana at times showed good range, but committed nine errors and allowed nine infield hits.
Chisenhall, 25, has the first-round pedigree but his major league career has sputtered through three false starts. Still, he has just over a season’s worth of plate appearances to his name; should he manage to put his offensive and defensive games together, Chisenhall has the potential to become a league-average third baseman.
The possibility of Santana becoming the regular third baseman has some Indians fans excited, though a more realistic scenario has him spelling Chisenhall at third versus tough left-handers and spending the rest of his time filling in around the diamond as needed (DH, C, 1B).
Chisenhall has the surer glove of the two, making him the likely starter when groundballer Justin Masterson is on the mound, and his splits against RHP, while not inspiring, are playable.
What rookie, if any, will make the most impact on the team in 2014?
The most-rumored departure of the offseason–that of shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera–never occurred, delaying the ascension of top prospect Francisco Lindor until mid-season at the earliest. Lindor would improve the infield defense dramatically, but he is still refining his offensive game. Should the Tribe fall out of contention, Antonetti will be tempted to find Cabrera a new home by the trading deadline so the Lindor Era can begin in earnest.
If the Indians are still in the thick of things come July, however, the greatest rookie contribution may come from Bauer, who has retooled his delivery and refined his command this winter at the Texas Baseball Ranch. Ranked among Baseball America’s Top 100 for three years running, Bauer could justify that status if his hard work leads to a rotation spot this spring.
What will be the final record of the team and where will they finish in the division?
The Indians were one of baseball’s surprise teams last season, improving by 24 wins over 2012. As is often the case with surprise teams, the 2013 Tribe overachieved, bettering their third-order wins by more than five. Given the defections from the pitching staff and the reliance on rebounds from aging players such as Bourn and Swisher, I expect the Tribe to slip by as many as 10 wins this season. That could be good enough for second place in what should be a more competitive, though depleted, AL Central.
Which player from your team do you most enjoy watching?
With every pitch, Danny Salazar walks a high wire, daring hitters to swing at 96-mph fastballs up in the zone then defying them with an 86-mph split-change that drops off the table. Win or lose, each matchup is electric.
Thanks to Daniel Shoptaw and C70 At The Bat for giving TribeScribe the opportunity to get up off the mental couch and stretch some writing muscles.
Kluber’s Big-League Stay Likely a Short One
Carlos Carrasco (Photo credit: Keith Allison)
In the wake of the debacle versus the Yankees, the Indians optioned Tuesday’s starter Carlos Carrasco to Columbus to work on command of his fastball and, presumably, control of his head-hunting impulses.
Tito’s proclaimed bullpen savior (and Wednesday’s scheduled starter) Brett Myers worked 5-1/3 innings in relief of Carrasco, necessitating the call-up of Corey Kluber from Columbus to take Myers’ turn in the rotation.
Yesterday’s rainout spared Kluber a likely beating from the suddenly potent Yankee bats, but cost him his chance to start. Zach McAllister will take the ball as scheduled in tonight’s series finale.
Kluber, who made 12 starts for the Indians last season, will stick around to provide mop-up innings in case the Yankees get the best of McAllister, but his stay will likely be a short one barring further injury and incompetence. The Indians will not need a fifth starter again until April 20 against the Astros, which is three days after Scott Kazmir is eligible to be activated from the disabled list.
Jason Giambi was eligible to come off the DL on April 9, so Kluber’s roster spot may soon be needed to accommodate the Indians’ elder statesman. Here’s hoping Giambi can deliver some of his Yoda-like wisdom to build the confidence of our young Jedis, who have taken a thrashing at the hands of baseball’s Evil Empire.
Whatever Swisher Wants, Swisher Gets
The 1955 Original Cast Recording (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In the musical “Damn Yankees,” the Devil sends the seductress Lola to seal his deal with slugger Joe Hardy by stealing him away from his wife. How fitting then that Mark Shapiro chose Chef Michael Symon’s Lola Bistro as the setting for his own seduction of erstwhile Yankee Nick Swisher Monday night.
Shapiro might need the services of the Dark Lord to sway Swisher, who reportedly would prefer to play in Los Angeles where his wife, the actress Joanna Garcia, makes her living. Cleveland, for all its charms, undeniably lacks career opportunities for Mrs. Swisher.
But no job openings seem to exist in L.A. for her husband either. The Angels have no room in the outfield after signing Josh Hamilton, who might know a thing or two about Faustian bargains. And the Dodgers, who have more money than God, can’t seem to find a taker for Andre Ethier and the contract extension they signed him to last June. Perhaps the Lord does work in mysterious ways.
Of course, the demands of marriage are not the only influence on Swisher’s decision. As a young ballplayer with the A’s, Swisher once told a roomful of fans at Fanfest that, while loyalty was nice, he would play for whoever paid him the most money. Now 32 years old, Swisher might not get another chance at a long-term, big-money contract.
Who could blame him, then, for balking at the Indians’ reported offer of four years and $52 million when his statistical inferior Ethier got five years and $85 million? And Hamilton’s deal just provides 125 million more reasons for Swisher to keep looking.
They say that the way to a man’s heart is through his stomach, but could the contents of a man’s stomach betray what’s in his heart? If Chef Symon knows, he isn’t telling. Symon said in an email that “we don’t ‘kiss & tell’ with our customers…go tribe!!!”
Playing Pepper: 2011 Indians
TribeScribe fielded a few questions about the 2011 Indians with fellow BBA blogger Nino Colla of TribeDaily in C70 At the Bat‘s “Playing Pepper” series.
You Might Be an Indians Fan If…
If you are looking for a team to root for, this flowchart may have the answer for you. According to Paul Caputo, you might be an Indians fan if:
- You have a soul.
- You care if your team ever wins another game.
- You are not watching baseball to pass the time until football training camp.
- You do not use sports to distract yourself from the drudgery of your horrible life.
- You do not cheer when the Jumbotron says so and not a moment sooner.
- You do not believe it’s racist to make a race of people a sports mascot.
- You grew up in [Cleveland] rooting for [the Indians].
Flowchart courtesy of InterpretationByDesign.com
Required Reading: The Manny Effect
I’m a little late in recommending this Jonah Keri post at FanGraphs, but not too late for you to revel in some Manny Ramirez nostalgia:
Whenever the Indians were on TV, the whole family would gather around to watch. When Manny would do something particularly amazing, everyone would go nuts. “Manny Ramirez! Manny Ramirez!”, they’d all yell. The family’s King Charles spaniel was your typical cute little lap dog, rarely making noise or bothering anyone. But every time anyone exclaimed “Manny Ramirez!”, the dog had the same reaction: YIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIPYIP
More importantly, Keri points out that despite his skill erosion, Manny is still a very bad man:
Are you a skeptic who thinks Ramirez isn’t the same since his 50-game PED suspension in 2009? You’re absolutely right. In 167 games (631 PA) since then, he’s hit well below career norms, with a line of .284/.399/.476. That’s still better than anyone the Rays had before last night.
Keri also points out that Manny has an OPS+ of 156 for the years 2008-2010, second only to Albert Pujols.
Ramirez signed with the Rays for $2 million, a steal for a DH with that production and just $700k more than Austin Kearns signed for. And in the past, Manny has publicly stated his desire to return to the Indians.
So forgive me if I wax nostalgic and wonder if, with a little more interest, Manny could have been Manny in Cleveland again.
Image via Wikipedia
According to Jordan Bastian at MLB.com, Dr. Rick Parker has given Carlos Santana a clean bill of health, allowing Santana to participate fully when spring training begins on Feb. 17. The switch-hitting catcher is also on target to start on Opening Day against the White Sox.
This is obviously great news for Manny Acta, who intends to get Santana into the lineup more often this season by giving him occasional starts at first base. Baseball Prospectus no doubt would agree with this move: Their PECOTA forecasting system projects Santana to be the Indians’ top hitter in 2011, a somewhat surprising development given Shin-Soo Choo‘s emergence as one of the AL’s top players.
Even more surprising is how much better than his teammates PECOTA projects Santana to be. Using a method borrowed from Rich Lederer at BaseballAnalysts.com, I graphed each Indians hitter’s projected OBP and SLG against an axis showing the league averages for 2010.
(Note: The projections include some players, like Matt McBride and Delvi Cid, who are unlikely to have any role with the 2011 Indians.)
That’s Santana, floating by himself in the upper right corner. PECOTA projects him to post a .264/.379/.470 line, bettering Choo’s projected OBP by 10 points and projected SLG by 30 points.
Coming off his MVP performance in the Asian games, Choo is entering his age-28 season, arguably the peak performance age for most MLB players. Yet the system predicts a down year for Choo in comparison to his last two full seasons, forecasting a loss of 75 points of OPS for the Tribe slugger.
Tribe fans should be cautiously optimistic about Grady Sizemore, however. While a return to his peak years of 2006-2008 is unlikely, Sizemore projects as a .252/.350/.435 hitter, numbers that would be welcome at the top of the lineup. In 2010, Tribe hitters—primarily Michael Brantley, Trevor Crowe and Asdrubal Cabrera—managed only a .294 OBP from the leadoff spot and just a .315 OBP hitting second.
Cabrera, too, should rebound slightly from last year, to .273/.330/.378, but don’t expect the newly signed Orlando Cabrera to contribute much. PECOTA not only sees his bat declining to .264/.307/.351, but also divines a drop in his defensive ability as well.
“Grace” Period Over for Jordan Brown
Image by Kirk Bravender via Flickr
Jordan Brown is a good baseball player.
Good enough to win an International League batting title in 2009.
Good enough to win back-to-back MVP awards in 2006 and 2007.
Good enough to be a third-team All-American at Arizona.
In other words, Brown plays baseball better than 99.9999875 percent of the world’s population, give or take a ten-millionth of a percent.
But Chris Antonetti has determined, apparently, that Jordan Brown is not good enough to play for the Cleveland Indians.
Many fans, I’m sure, disagree with this assessment.
Many of you wonder why the Indians, who finished 12th in the AL in runs scored in 2010, could not find more than 87 at-bats for Brown, who hit .305/.354/.471 over three AAA seasons. And there was a time that I would have agreed with you.
At the end of the 2007 season, Brown looked to me like the resurrection of Mark Grace. Compare Brown’s 2007 line to Grace’s 1987 season with Pittsfield:
Jordan Brown, 2007 at AA Akron (age 23)
.333/.421/.484, 558 PA, 161 H, 36 2B, 2 3B, 11 HR, 63 BB, 56 K
Mark Grace, 1987 at AA Pittsfield (age 23)
.333/.394/.545, 513 PA, 151 H, 29 2B, 8 3B, 17 HR, 48 BB, 24 K
The batting averages are identical, the counting stats are similar, and Grace’s lead in slugging is somewhat offset by Brown’s higher on-base percentage. Each player’s numbers were good enough to garner him the Eastern League MVP Award.
But the two players’ careers diverge from there.
In May of 1988, Leon “Bull” Durham—Chicago’s four-year incumbent at first base—was struggling at the plate. His wife had been ill during spring training, which may have been a distraction to him in the season’s early going. Grace, with little experience above AA, took over the starting first base job when the Cubs traded Durham to his hometown Cincinnati Reds.
With Grace at first, Chicago won the NL East title in 1989, thus cementing his “favorite son” status among the Cubbie faithful. And despite criticism that the offense he provided was not “good enough” for a first baseman, Grace went on to win four Gold Gloves and appear in three All-Star Games, and he famously led the 1990s in hits.
Could Brown, with a little luck and his MVP award in his pocket, have won a big league job with the Tribe in 2008?
At the outset of 2008, the Indians had Ryan Garko at first, Travis Hafner at DH, and a platoon of Ben Francisco and David Dellucci in left. Hafner had to play, thanks to his contract, and Victor Martinez spelled Garko at first against tough right-handers.
As the left-handed half of the platoon, then, Dellucci posed the biggest obstacle to Brown—except, maybe, for Brown himself.
When Hafner went on the DL at the end of May 2008, opening a spot in the lineup, Brown was hitting .295 at Buffalo with 18 doubles. But he had zero home runs, and his performance tailed off in June and July, guaranteeing that he would not get a shot to replace Pronk or to platoon with Garko—even as Dellucci disappointed the Tribe for the second straight season.
To his credit, Brown rebounded that August, then posted his best power numbers in 2009—35 doubles and 15 homers for a .532 slugging percentage. But in retrospect, his strong numbers in 2007 and 2009 were each buoyed by an unsustainable BABIP of over .360.
Grace’s BABIPs stayed consistently in the .320 range, even in the majors. And Grace possessed an uncanny batting eye: He walked more than he struck out in every season of his career, majors or minors.
Brown, by comparison, has become less selective at the plate in recent years, perhaps in search of more power. While he still strikes out infrequently, his walk rate has fallen below 6 percent from a high of 11.3 percent in 2007.
And now, blocked by Matt LaPorta and an Indians lineup heavy with left-handed hitters, Brown’s “Grace period” seems to have come to a close. He will return to Columbus and resume being a good baseball player.
But, I suspect, Brown just won’t be good enough.
Image via Wikipedia
The Indians players aren’t the only ones who need to get in shape for the coming season. TribeScribe’s personal spring training begins now with this links-o-mania post:
- Manny Acta tells Jordan Bastian of MLB.com that the Tribe will rely on its young starting pitchers in 2011.
- Paul Hoynes, longtime Indians beat writer of “Hey! Hoynsie” fame, has the A’s to David Laurila’s Q’s in this BP interview.
- Hoynsie previews the top young Tribesmen at the team’s winter development program, including Lonnie Chisenhall and Jason Kipnis .
- Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranks Chisenhall the #2 prospect at third base and Kipnis #4 at second base.
- Meanwhile, Jim Caple of ESPN.com ranks Chief Wahoo dead last among MLB logos for his offensive appearance. Money quote, on those who defend Wahoo on grounds of tradition: “Yes, it’s incredibly offensive, but we’ve been offending people with it for soooooo long we can’t stop now.” Hard to argue with that.
- As a follow-up to their huge hit “The Ballad of Mike Kekich and Fritz Peterson“, The Baseball Project’s new album features a song about Carl Mays, the pitcher whose pitch killed Indians SS Ray Chapman. “Here Lies Carl Mays” paints the New York hurler as a tragic, apologetic figure, which I can only describe as blatant Yankee propaganda.
TribeScribe 